Tuesday, March 30, 2010

DERBY 2010!!!!!

Junior's top 10 for the DERBYYYYY

1. Alphie's Bet- His style fits the Derby perfectly, can run all day and will peak at the right time.
2. Eskendereya- Might be the most talented horse of the bunch.
3. Endorsement- Up and comer showed his talent in the Sunland Derby.
4. Tiz the One- Another up and comer who could take this group by surprise come the first Saturday in May.
5. Dublin- Solid horse and always puts in a good effort. His style fits.
6. Schoolyard Dreams- Can't put my finger on him but he is a nice horse, who has been getting disrespected on others' lists
7. Lookin at Lucky- I question the competition he's faced. Gets big test in SA Derby
8. Awesome Act- Gotham was impressive, race vs. Eskendereya will show what hes really made of.
9. Stay Put- Disappointing run in the Louisana Derby but noone really made up ground and I still think he has a lot of room to improve and his style fits. Needs some earnings though.
10. Soaring Empire- Remains my darkhorse even after bad run in the Florida Derby. Had trouble that day though and will need to run back to get enough earnings. Lots of room to improve. Maybe the Arkansas Derby? That would give him three weeks off since the Florida Derby.


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Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Leg 3

I'll put my faith in the outside again going with the 5 and 6. However I always like to have a price and theres one in here that does scare me so I'll be throwing in the 3 for hopefully at least a fun will pay. Lets look closer:

1- A very nice horse no doubt. The race last time was actually much more impressive than appears on paper (i was there in person to see it). She broke very poorly and came flying like an express train. Granted the fractions were fast and the field wasn't breathtaking, it was still very visually impressive. However at 9-5 I gotta beat her coming out of a race with a suspect field and a beyer that was clearly aided by the scorching pace.
2- This one could be dangerous. An improving 3 year old is always danger. She has faced some tough competition in the past and is finally figuring things out. I just dont think she is quite good enough for these.
3- As I said earlier Dutrow is the best at training a horse up to a race and that is the position we find him in again. The horse seems to have an affinity for Belmont. You might wonder why i say that but the debut here was better than looked. Breaking from the rail, always a tough task for a first timer, she faced some very quality horses including Casanova Move and Light Green. I'm honestly not sure who will get the lead in this race but it will either be this one or the 6 and if i had to bet my money is going here. After that bet, I'd bet that the 6 takes off this horse giving her an easy lead making her even more dangerous. Call me a price hunter but this one looks talented and dangerous, especially on an easy lead.
4- Maybe this made a big improvement as a 3 year old and grew a lot and is a nice racehorse. But shes going to have to prove that to me. From what I see she is not in the same class as these. She hasnt race in almost a year so there is definite room for improvement for this filly making her 3 year old debut. Another trend we've been seeing is the improvement horses make from synthetic to dirt so thats another positive here. Lets give her this one and see what happens. Gotta let her beat me.
5- I love the improvement this one keeps showing. I love that she won off a nice layoff. I love that shes won on the lead and from way back. I love the Assmuessen, Bridgmahan combo. I love the post. Lots of positives. Shes in.
6- My top pick gets the best post. This horse has been going farther than she has wanted to go for awhile now because I believe Pletcher knows he has a talented horse and had to give her a shot at some of the big races. Now she is back a distance I think she will prefer with the best post and if she can avoid a duel with the 3 and sit just off in 2nd she should get the best trip. On top of that I love the work on Sept 10. 5-2 is a fine price for me and I'll take it.

So theres the play. Put em together and you get 3,4,6,7 with 2,7,8 with 3,5,6 for a 36 dollar early pick 3. Good luck!

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Monday, September 21, 2009

Leg 2

I may be a Bruce Levine hater but I'm against both his short priced horses in the first two races. Give me the outside three in the 2nd. I'm gonna go with the 2,7,8. Let me explain:

3- Not the same horse he once was. Not good enough anymore unless he magically reverses form. No reason to expect that.
4- Never turf, long layoff, in for a tag for first time. 3 strikes, your out.
1- The class of the field. On the way down in his career. He may have a few more decent efforts in him but I don't think hes worth 2-1 in any way.
5- Would take a perfect storm for this 50-1 shot to pull this off. There are some signs- new trainer, last race was a step in right direction, stepping up in class. God bless him if he wins but I'll let that perfect storm happen.
6- Out of the same race as the 7 and 9 and was simply much worse. The race before doesnt offer any potential either. Another one that would have to rekindle some old magic to win.
7- My price play in the race. Takes a slight drop which may be exactly what the doctor ordered. Has raced against some better than looks fields (Elusive Fox, Pennington, Wishful Tomcat) and I dont think he wants any part of sprinting so feel free to throw out the two on the page. Now look closely and you can see some sneaky turf form. Getting Garcia doesnt hurt. At 10-1 he is p3 material.
2- May have ran better than the 8-5 favorite last time as he came from farther back in a very slow pace. Lezcano probably had the choice of either the 2 or 8 in their LAST race and went with the 8 but Castellano may be the man for the job. Theres nothing that makes you jump out of your seat in regards to his first two turf races on the page or his turf record for that matter but the recent trainer switch may have triggered a light in this 7 year old gelding and in trying to beat the 8-5 favorite I will make him my top choice
8- Tough. He will be tough. Almost always seems to run a nice race on the turf as he has been in the money in 7 of 10 attempts over the grass. Having said that 8-5 seems a little short and while he might win he is not worth 8-5 in win plays.




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Belmont Wednesday 9/23

As most of you know we are very big pick 3 players so I will post some pick 3 plays for Wednesday here:

Race 1:
1- The rail draw for this second time starter doesn't thrill me. The short layoff doesnt bother me either. It looks he got some pressure last time which shows he might have some talent. However from this post and having on one race under his belt I have to let him beat me.
2- I really like this horse. I do. But I'm not buying his new found dirt form. I see two perfect trips against suspect fields. I like the post a lot for his style and he should get a great ground saving stalking trip in a race that should have some decent pace. However, at his short price I dont believe he is good enough to beat these.
3- Immediately throw out the last race as he needed a lengthy layoff. Looking closely I see some sneaky good form. I might be forcing a price here but I think he may like sprinting better. I think he will get the best trip in the race. Seems to be a new horse since his last layoff and at 12-1 ML for p3 purposes I'm buying. If your cash strapped don't be shy to leave this one out though.
4- A wise man once told me Richard Dutrow could train a horse up to a race better than any trainer in the business. And you know what? I've found that to be very true. This horse is only 3 and already has posted a 92 beyer as a young 2 year old. As the second choice on the board I have to say he is my top pick.
5- I dont think he is a need the lead horse. It may look that way but I think if he relaxes he can be dangerous. Having said that I see him getting in a duel with the 1 and 7 and having the worst trip of them all. On top of that he should have won the race 3 back and cameback to beat a more than suspect field. His beyers look appealing and I hope he is overbet for that reason. It would probably be a safe bet to assume Ramon Dominguez was offered this mount however he is on my longshot 3 ;). Just another reason to leave this one out.
6- I'll throw out his mile race right off the bat. I'll even forgive the one before that because it was a tough field, fast pace, he was wide and had some trouble. So lets start 3 back. For those who dont know Fateh Field cameback to win recently and right after that last race (the one on Aug 5) ran a trouble 2nd I believe (maybe 3rd). The point is that race is very live as Citifest cameback to also beat a pretty solid field. I know it was turf and I wouldnt argue with you if you said this guy's best two races were on the turf but he was definitely not bad on the dirt. The ONLY reason this horse is 20-1 is based off his last two races and I have legitimate reasons to throw both of them out. The first two races of his career are stellar. This guy is a must use in any exotic horizontally or vertically.
7- Ah the best post in the race goes to the favorite. How disappointing. I probably would have tried to beat him if it werent for his post. In my opinion, his races are dressed up and the competition has always been overrated, meaning the guys he has run against are not as good as people think. Expect him to go off as a heavy favorite and expect it to be close at the end. I dont think this guy will live up to the odds he will go off at at all. Having said that he could win and I'll be using him in the pick 3 but dont be shy to try and beat him.

3,4,6,7 in the first leg


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Play of the Day

Fairplex is here and therefore Slacker and myself have taken some time off. However every once in awhile a play comes along that you have to make. That play will be coming at Fairplex on September 24th. In the 9th race Wendoffer should win. I am hoping to maybe sneak 5-2 on her. If so you can bet there will be a substantial bet on her. As always, good luck.

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Thursday, March 12, 2009

New Top 10 for the Derby

1. Charitable Man
2. Dunkirk
3. Old Fashioned
4. The Pamplemousse
5. Theregoesjojo
6. Quality Road
7. I Want Revenge
8. Flying Pegasus
9. Hamazing Destiny
10. Friesan Fire

There you have it folks, Junior's top 10 Derby picks.

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Saturday, February 14, 2009

Saturday Magna 5

3,8 with 5 with 4,8 with 4,5 with 1,2,4,7,10,11,12.

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Friday, February 13, 2009

Horse to Bet

A horse from my watch list is making an appearance on Sunday at Fairgrounds. He'll be going against what should be a heavily favored recapturetheglory. My horse is King Dan with a ML of 5-1. Very confident in this one and expecting a big race. Looks like he might get some pressure but I'm not too worried. Should stay around 5-1 but honestly I could see this one going up or down.

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Saturday, February 7, 2009

Saturday Plays

Saturday's plays. Good luck

Fair Grounds:

Race 5: pick 5: 3 with 1,2,4,5 with 2,5,7 with 1,7,8 with 2,5,7,12
Race 5: pick 5: 1 with 2,4,5 with 2,5,7 with 3,7,8 with 2,6,7,8,12
Race 5: 1,3 Exacta Box
Race 7: Win Place #5
Race 7: 2,5,7 Exacta Box
Race 9: trifecta key 2 with 5,6,7,8,10,12

Santa Anita:

Race 1: Win Place #4
Race 1: Pick 3: 4 with 6 with all
Race 1: Pick 4: 4 with 6 with 2,6,10,14 with all
Race 5: pick 6 carryover: 6,10 with 5 with 3,8,10 with 3,4,7 with 1,2,5,9,12 with 6
Race 7: Win Place #8
Race 8: 3,4 Exacta Box
Race 8: Win on #3 and #4
Race 9: Trifecta 2,9,12 with 1,2,5,9,12 with all, or key 2 with 1,4,5,7,8,9,12
Race 9: 2,9,12 Exacta Box
Race 10: Win Place #6

Tampa Bay Downs:

Race 10: Win Place #2
Race 10: 2,3,7 Exacta Box

Friday, February 6, 2009

Fairgrounds 2/6/09

It's close to post but Terryhowieandjimmy is running again in 20 minutes. We are going to give him another chance here at 8-1 right now. Finishing off the three horse exacta box im putting in the 1 and 8. Good luck

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